The second half of last year was filled with news of how the world is heading to a huge financial depression and that we’re all going to feel it. That’s not news I like to hear on my picture wireless so, much like everyone else, I braced for shaky times ahead.
Now I’m not an economist. In fact my understanding of economies, money, and trade don’t go past the one-year of economics I did at university, but I have a fair understanding of how things should be in a perfect economy (which of course doesn’t exist). But then again, when the news says the stock market has fallen 9% in one day, you really don’t need even a year of economics to know that isn’t a good thing.
So how will the world fair in 2009 and beyond?
I personally believe in the scenario of Pierre Boulle in that apes will eventually take over the world. I should point out that I don’t actually think it’ll be apes but rather their primate cousin’s the gorilla (and small monkeys for domestic chores) that will be our supreme rulers.
One slightly less watered-down theory, although equally as interesting, is by Yale professor Paul Kennedy who has compiled a list of countries that will continue to do well and those that will struggle. Germany, China, India, and northern European nations should all fair very well in the latest financial crisis. Well, not well, but I think not as bad as the rest of us. He accounts this for quality developments, huge bank reserves, and infrastructure by European nations and by sheer size (and I’m guessing a relatively cheap labor base) for China and India.
Having around a billion people will do that. There’s always someone who’ll work for a little less merely to get some sort of income.
The biggest losers in the financial crisis will be Russia, Venezuela and Iran, most of Africa and Latin America, and Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. He accounts this for dependency on oil and trade as primary (and in some cases the only form) industries running their economies.
And here I was thinking Kimchi making was the primary industry of Korea.
The biggest loser out of everyone is the US. That’s not surprising seeing as they’re funding two wars and dealing with what can only be called a major fuck up in domestic economic policies. President-elect Obama is going to have one hell of a hole to dig his country-to-be out of.
I’m not sure how Australia will fair, but I’m guess due to its natural resources (thanks Western Australia) we should at very least, stay afloat.
Why am I not surprised to see South Korea mentioned?
Personally speaking, I haven’t seen too many changes here in Korea aside from a currency that is rapidly making better use as paperweights. I haven’t sent any money home in nearly a year and will probably wait till my first contract is up (when I’ll receive my bonus) before doing so. It’ll also be at a time when the won falls below 900 won to the dollar (now its about 930, although it did get to 870 last week).
It’s also seen the average hagwon wage rise from about 2.1 million won to about 2.4 million won in the space of about 6 months. Anyone who signs for less than 2.3 million won (as a first year teacher that is) is an idiot. I made damn sure I was getting more than that with my second contract, although when that starts next month, I’m hoping its still as good as it sounded back in October when I resigned.
I have also lost a couple of students simply become there parents can no longer afford to send their children to an English academy any more. That’s the reason the Korean teachers are telling me which sounds a lot better than saying it was something I did! That said, they’re easily being replaced by new students. In fact this month alone I’m teaching about 110 students.
Now is the time hagwon’s need to be busy. I don’t see too many breaks around the corner and to be entirely honest with you, I’m happy about that. I fear a lot of these smaller hagwon’s will be closing down very shortly (talk to anyone who was here during the IMF crisis in ‘97 and they’ll tell you that most of them closed down very rapidly). I hope it doesn’t happen, but hagwons are more a luxury than a necessity.
As for commodities, well I haven’t seen a huge change in prices, but a few things have gone up. I didn’t really notice a huge change in price last time I went to CostCo, although I don’t buy a lot from there anyway so its a little difficult to compare. Certainly food doesn’t appear to be much more expensive (I’d say its gone up at most 5%). And because I don’t buy oil (directly) that hasn’t cut into our savings. This is one of the few times I’m happy I don’t have a car or oil heating.
While I understand the financial crisis has happened (durrr…) I’m kind of waiting for it to hit me more directly (although not really inviting it to). When it does come, I’ve made sure that both Em and I will be ok (at least for a while, then I’ll be hitting the streets with a card board sign looking for work!).
How have the rest of you faired during the economic crisis? Have you had to make any changes in your life to accommodate for rising prices?
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